What ShakeAlert’s Expansion to Alaska Means for the Future of Earthquake Early Warning

Alaska experiences more seismic activity than any other U.S. state. It’s home to the second-largest earthquake ever recorded, the 1964 M9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake, and produces thousands of earthquakes every year, including several above magnitude 5. Yet Alaska doesn’t have an earthquake early warning system.

That’s changing. And what happens in Alaska over the next several years could determine how earthquake early warning expands across the rest of the country.

The research that made the case

In August 2025, researchers Alexander Fozkos and Michael West at the University of Alaska Fairbanks published a study in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America that modeled how an earthquake early warning system would perform across Alaska’s seismic zones.

The findings were strong. For a wide range of earthquake scenarios, the study showed that an EEW system could provide at least 10 seconds of warning before hazardous shaking arrived. In many scenarios, warning times were considerably longer: communities near the Alaska Peninsula like Sand Point, King Cove, and Chignik could receive between 10 and 50 seconds. In some cases, particularly for offshore subduction zone events, warning times could reach up to two minutes.

Increasing station density in key regions could add another 5 to 15 seconds to those estimates.

For context, the ShakeAlert system covering California, Oregon, and Washington typically delivers between 5 and 60 seconds of warning depending on distance from the epicenter. Alaska’s geography actually works in its favor here. Many of the most dangerous fault zones sit offshore, which means seismic waves have to travel farther before reaching populated areas.

What the implementation plan looks like

Congress directed the USGS to work with the State of Alaska to develop a Phase 1 implementation plan, and allocated $1 million in FY 2022 to get it started.

The initial phase would focus on the regions where about 90% of Alaska’s population lives: Anchorage, Fairbanks, Kodiak, and Prince William Sound. The plan calls for 450 real-time seismic stations, of which only 20 currently exist. Roughly 270 would be newly built, with another 160 upgraded from existing stations.

Fieldwork is already underway. In late 2025, the Alaska Earthquake Center installed 52 sensors across Homer and Kodiak, arranged specifically to measure offshore earthquakes. This is the kind of ground-truth data collection that ShakeAlert needs to calibrate its detection algorithms for Alaska’s unique seismic environment.

Why this matters beyond Alaska

ShakeAlert has operated on the West Coast since 2019, covering California, Oregon, and Washington, a population of roughly 50 million. Alaska’s expansion would be the first time the system moves beyond that original footprint.

That precedent matters. The USGS 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model showed that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake. Thirty-seven states have experienced a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake in the past 200 years. The question of whether early warning stays a West Coast technology or becomes a national capability is being answered, in part, by what happens in Alaska.

If the Alaska deployment succeeds, across harsh environments, sparse telecommunications infrastructure, and a diverse set of earthquake types, it builds the operational case for extending ShakeAlert to other high-risk areas the USGS has flagged: Reno, Las Vegas, and eventually parts of the central and eastern U.S. where seismic risk is higher than most people assume.

What organizations should be watching

For facility operators and safety managers in seismically active regions, the Alaska expansion is a signal worth paying attention to. Earthquake early warning is becoming standard infrastructure, not an experiment.

Organizations that have already integrated EEW into their operations, automating gas shutoffs, elevator recalls, or production line stops, are ahead of a curve that’s only accelerating. The ones that haven’t should be asking what their plan looks like when early warning reaches their region.

The technology to convert seconds of warning into automated protective action is already deployed in hospitals, fire stations, schools, and manufacturing facilities across the West Coast. Alaska will be next. The rest of the country won’t be far behind.

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Early Warning Labs is a leading provider of earthquake early warning systems in the United States and an official USGS ShakeAlert partner. Learn more about how EEW protects people and facilities at earlywarninglabs.com.

Sources

• Fozkos & West (2025): Study Demonstrates Excellent Potential of Earthquake Early Warning System in Alaska, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
• ScienceDaily: Scientists reveal Alaska could get up to two minutes’ warning before the next big quake
• USGS: Phase 1 Technical Implementation Plan for the Expansion of ShakeAlert to Alaska
• Alaska Earthquake Center: Earthquake Early Warning in Alaska
• Anchorage Daily News: The people and technology behind earthquake early warning
• USGS: 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model